The Linda problem
You have read about errors people make when making causal attributions: that is, assigning a cause to an event in relation to their own and others’ behaviour. Although people can think rationally in many circumstances, when they are pressed for time, lack the necessary cognitive abilities, relevant information or motivation, thinking rationally can be inconvenient or tiring to pursue. In this sense, humans are not ‘irrational’, but have ‘bounded rationality’, as proposed by Herbert Simon in 1982.
Rationality is bounded because there are limits to our thinking capacity, available information and time (Simon, 1982). Under such circumstances, people can opt for approximate judgements by relying on heuristics, or ‘rules of thumb’ in place of striving for ‘perfect’ judgements. The downside is that, by depending on these useful heuristics, individuals are prone to biases that can result in errors.
Reference: Simon, H. A. (1982). Models of bounded rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Before we proceed with the reading on heuristics and biases, let’s take note of the class’s response to a question. Read the statement below and select your response. All responses are anonymised and cannot be traced back to individual students. Do not spend too much time thinking about your choice, and go with your first preference! We will discuss this quick exercise in the closing topic summary.
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy.
As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Question
Which of the statements below is more probable?
(Explained in Gigerenzer cog illusions 1991 paper)